CPI and Consumer Spending: How Will It Affect Stocks in 2019?

With the price of lettuce increasing by 15 percent over the past 12 months at the end of February, and television prices dropping 17 percent during the same period, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, these statistics show the dynamism of consumer goods.Since consumer spending continues to make up approximately two-thirds of the U.S. economy, according to the St. Louis Fed, understanding how it impacts company earnings and future stock market movements is essential.Surveying Consumer Spending Based on the March 29 Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) release, consumers are [...]

2019-05-01T12:00:04-08:00May 1st, 2019|

What is the Forecast for Job Creation in 2019?

According to a March 12, 2019 publication of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' TED: The Economics Daily, the February employment report did not report show a lot of jobs for the U.S. economy. Based on the report and averaging all sectors, only 20,000 jobs were gained during February 2019.Looking deeper at the individual sectors, the picture is more varied. "Professional and business services gained " 42,000 jobs during February. Similarly, "wholesale trade employment" maintained it's positive gains of 11,000 jobs during the same time-frame. However, the construction industry saw a [...]

2019-04-01T12:00:04-08:00April 1st, 2019|

Understanding Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations

With speculation of a third round of Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs), understanding how they've been implemented and how they’ve performed is essential to see just how this program might be extended. According to the European Central Bank, TLTROs “are Euro system operations that provide financing to credit institutions for periods of up to four years.” Their purpose, according to the ECB, is to help European countries’ banks provide more lending to all segments of the economy.TLTRO OriginsAs a reaction to the sovereign debt crisis, the ECB created the TLTRO [...]

2019-03-01T12:00:04-08:00March 1st, 2019|

How Will Domestic and Global Policy Impact Oil Prices in 2019?

With the Federal Reserve raising rates in 2018 and speculation of doing so again in 2019, combined with projected oil production cuts by Russia and Saudi Arabia, it is likely that these and other global events will impact world energy markets in 2019.Looking at how international markets have priced crude oil in 2018’s fourth quarter, there's a lot to speculate on where prices will go in 2019. During the final quarter of 2018, oil prices hit a 48-month high of $86 per barrel. Yet, by the end of December, the [...]

2019-02-01T12:00:04-08:00February 1st, 2019|

How Will the 90-Day Freeze on Tariff Increases Impact the Markets?

According to a press release issued by the United States Trade Representative (USTR) in the middle of September, tariffs of 10 percent on $200 billion of imported Chinese goods went into effect on Sept. 24, 2018. The same tariffs, according to the press release, were set to increase to 25 percent on the same $200 billion in Chinese imports on Jan. 1, 2019.   However, after talks between the leaders of the United States and China during G20 meetings in Buenos Aires, Argentina, the United States agreed to freeze tariffs at [...]

2019-01-01T12:00:04-08:00January 1st, 2019|

Will the United States Become a Bond Haven in 2019?

With Italian bond yields rising quickly from 2 percent to 3 percent since the middle of 2018, it begs the question if the United States will become a bond haven. There are many reasons why the United States Bond Market has the potential to became a refuge for many global investors.According to a 2016 paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research, safety is in the eye of the beholder – in the case of the global markets, it's the investor. When there are global economic worries, the paper credits [...]

2018-12-01T12:00:04-08:00December 1st, 2018|

How Will the Markets be Impacted by Trade in 2019?

With talks of changing existing trade deals by then candidate Donald Trump now a reality with President Trump, America has taken a different path for international trade. Seeing mixed results during negotiations, global and domestic stock markets have been shaken and are subject to ongoing volatility. Today, foreign trade talks are in flux, and it’s unknown how different deals will affect the stock market in 2019.Impact for U.S. Automakers’ Trade with South KoreaIn the five years since the Korea Free Trade Agreement has been in effect, the Office of the [...]

2018-11-01T12:00:04-08:00November 1st, 2018|